Citation:

Javad Barati. "Determining the Substitution Effect between Destinations of Iranian Tourists in Turkey" International Research Journal of Economics and Management Studies, Vol. 2, No. 4, pp. 354-360, 2023.

Abstract:

This study investigates the substitution effect between the destinations of Iranian tourists who travel to Turkey, distinguishing between Istanbul and other touristic cities. For this purpose, it uses the Dynamic Linear Regression model in the category of parameters that change over time that a State Space framework describes. The data are monthly from 2018-1 to 2023-2; the results show that there is a dynamic relationship between the “number of incoming Iranian tourists to Istanbul” and “the number of incoming Iranian tourists to other destinations”. It seems that the opening of Istanbul’s new airport and the diversification of flights to Turkish destinations have been important factors in the dynamics of the parameter. There is a substitution effect between Istanbul and other touristic destinations. Also, inflation (in both Iran and Turkey) affects Iranians’ travel behavior to Turkey due to two features: One is due to the decrease in the purchasing power of Iranians, and the second is due to the change in the national currency of the two countries.

References:

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[26] In 2012 and 2013, Agri hosted one-third of Iranians who traveled to Turkey, while this share decreased to 18% in 2018 and 2019 and to 13% in 2022. In contrast, the Istanbul, which had a share of about 30% in the early years of the 2010s, has reached more than 45% in recent years (especially in 2020 and 2021, it had a share of over 60%).
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[28] Market prices are considered for exchange rates of two countries.
[29] The impact of diversifying air transportation networks on the demand has been investigated in various studies, such as Birolini (2020), Castillo-Manzano et al. (2015).
[30] Among the seasonal dummy variables, some are significant and some not. But in general, it can be said that there is a seasonality of tourism for Iranians to Istanbul.

Keywords:

Iranian Tourists, Istanbul, Dynamic Linear Regression, Substitution Effect.