Citation:

Ayman Al Shehab. "The Effects of Oil Prices on Economic Growth: Symmetric and Asymmetric Analysis in the Sultanate of Oman" International Research Journal of Economics and Management Studies, Vol. 3, No. 10, pp. 175-184, 2024.

Abstract:

Sustainable economic growth is a basic key performance indicator of the strategic direction of flexible economic leadership as per Oman Vision 2040. This study examines the effects of oil prices on economic growth in the Sultanate of Oman using quarterly data covering the period (Q1 2010- Q4 2023) to help decision-makers achieve Oman Vision 2040 objectives. The literature revealed significant disparities in assessing whether oil prices influenced economic growth and whether the effect was positive or negative in developed and developing countries. Is it nonlinear or linear? Is there symmetry or asymmetry in the nonlinear effects? There are few studies in the Omani context. Still, they suffer from weaknesses as they have never examined the possibility of a nonlinear relationship between oil prices and economic growth and whether the effects of oil prices on economic growth are symmetric or asymmetric. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) were used to find that oil prices and economic growth are linearly cointegrated. Oil prices are found to have positive linear effects on economic growth in the long run and the short run as well.

References:

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[43] Economic Growth (EG) is presented in this study as the Gross Domestic Product Growth.
[44] LR: Likelihood Test statistic, HQ: Hannan- Quinn information criterion, FPE: Final prediction error, SC: Schwarz Information criterion, and AIC: Akaike information criterion.

Keywords:

Oil Prices, Economic Growth, ARDL model, NARDL model, Sultanate of Oman.