Citation:

Fastha Aulia Pradhani, Juwita Sari. "Analysis Shifting of Cooking Oil Prices Using Forecasting Production Volumes of Crude Prime Oil (CPO) and Biodiesel" International Research Journal of Economics and Management Studies, Vol. 3, No. 12, pp. 219-223, 2024.

Abstract:

(The increase in the price of cooking oil was one of the problems in Indonesia. One of the reasons is the reduction of raw material of cooking oil, Crude Prime Oil (CPO), which happened from the beginning of 2020, at the same time as the first pandemic covid 19 at Indonesia. Mandatori B30 program is one of another; 30% of biodiesel must be produced from palm oil and 70% from solar energy. In this study, the shifting of the price of cooking oil is analyzed with the estimation of the forecast model from CPO and the biodiesel variable. The method that was used was Neural Networks. The best model for forecast was determined from the minimum of MAPE. The results showed that the best model for forecasting CPO was Neural Networks with architecture MLP (3-3-1) and MLP (1-7-1) for biodiesel. 5 years later, the CPO and biodiesel production will be increased, so the government should make regulations that can be cooking oil prices to be much more stable, even though the raw material would be reduced.

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Keywords:

Biodiesel, CPO, Forecasting, Neural Networks, MLP Architecture.