Citation:

Muhammad Rizqon, Dr. Irni Yunita. "Survival and Transformation: Assessing the Financial Resilience of Indonesian Tourism Companies Pre, During, and Post-COVID-19" International Research Journal of Economics and Management Studies, Vol. 3, No. 2, pp. 107-115, 2024.

Abstract:

The COVID-19 pandemic and government mobility restrictions significantly impacted the performance of tourism sector companies, although they demonstrated rapid recovery post-restrictions. This study compared five bankruptcy prediction models (Altman, Springate, Zmijewski, Zavgren, and Ohlson) to identify the most accurate model for predicting bankruptcy among Indonesian companies, particularly in the tourism sector. The assessment of bankruptcy prediction accuracy considered not only the comparison of interpretation results with the cutoff value criteria but also the alignment with companies' general performance patterns before, during, and after the pandemic. The study involved 29 tourism companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange from 2018 to 2022, utilizing the paired sample t-test difference test technique for hypothesis testing. The results revealed significant differences between the models in predicting potential bankruptcy, with the Springate model exhibiting the highest accuracy at 77%, followed by Altman at 50%, Zmijewski at 49%, Ohlson at 40%, and Zavgren at 28%. The score graph patterns produced by the Springate, Altman, Zmijewski, and Zavgren models were found to be most suitable for describing the conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, the study compared the financial conditions before, during, and after the pandemic, revealing significant differences before and during the pandemic according to the Springate model. In contrast, no significant differences were observed before and after the pandemic. To maximize the benefits of bankruptcy prediction models, the study recommends their use in conjunction with vertical analysis, which compares performance from year to year.

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Keywords:

Bankruptcy, Covid-19, Financial Analysis, Indonesian Stock Exchange, Tourism.