: 10.56472/25835238/IRJEMS-V4I11P109
Ghozali Maski, Ulul Azmi, Ouyang Hongbing. "Investigation of Inflation as a Moderation of the Effect of Monetary Economic Variables on Unemployment in Indonesia" International Research Journal of Economics and Management Studies, Vol. 4, No. 11, pp. 53-65, 2025. Crossref. http://doi.org/10.56472/25835238/IRJEMS-V4I11P109
Unemployment is an economic and social problem. Unemployment becomes an economic problem when the unemployment rate increases, and it can be likened to a country that wastes goods and services. Therefore, those who are unemployed can actually produce. Unemployment will become a social problem when there is no income, while consumption must continue; therefore, they try to maintain it, which can cause suffering for the unemployed. If the unemployment problem persists, it will negatively impact economic growth, as the increase in unemployment leads to a decline in economic growth. This study aims to analyze the role of inflation as a moderating variable in the relationship between monetary policy and unemployment rates in Indonesia. Given the complex economic dynamics, this study employs a quantitative approach, utilising secondary data from the Central Bureau of Statistics and Bank Indonesia for the period 2008-2023. The analysis model used is path analysis to identify how inflation moderates the influence of monetary variables, such as interest rates, exchange rates, and money supply, on the unemployment rate. The results of the study show that inflation fails as a moderating variable, so that the impact of monetary policy on unemployment is direct. At low inflation rates, a significant negative relationship exists between monetary policy and unemployment; however, this relationship becomes weaker at high inflation rates. These findings provide important insights for policymakers in designing more effective economic policies, taking into account existing inflation conditions. This study also suggests the need for a comprehensive strategy to overcome unemployment, which does not only focus on monetary policy but also considers inflation factors as the main driver.
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Inflation, Monetary Variables, Unemployment, Moderation, Phillips Curve.