Citation:

I Gusti Gde Ngurah Arya Kelakan, Santi Noviani. "Scenario Planning: Asseing PT Telkomsel Preparedness in the Face of Potential Full Retail Entry by Starlink in Indonesia Telecommunications Industry" International Research Journal of Economics and Management Studies, Vol. 4, No. 11, pp. 109-119, 2025. Crossref. http://doi.org/10.56472/25835238/IRJEMS-V4I11P115

Abstract:

Indonesia’s broadband market is entering a new phase as low-Earth-orbit (LEO) satellite operators such as Starlink begin competing directly with terrestrial fixed and mobile broadband. For Telkomsel—Indonesia’s largest mobile operator and a key fixed–mobile convergence (FMC) player—this shift creates both opportunities and risks, especially if Starlink expands into the retail market at scale.This study applies a mixed-methods, seven-step scenario-planning approach to assess how Telkomsel can remain resilient under different regulatory and adoption trajectories of Starlink’s potential full retail entry. The research combines contextual analysis (PESTEL, Porter’s Five Forces, SWOT) with primary data from nine expert respondents representing Telkomsel leadership, IT solution providers, legal and regulatory specialists, and economists, complemented by a structured survey.Driving forces are identified, clustered, and prioritized using an impact–uncertainty matrix, yielding two critical uncertainties: (1) the stringency and consistency of policy application to retail satellite services and (2) the pace and affordability of customer adoption of LEO-based connectivity. These dimensions form a 2×2 scenario framework that generates four futures: Open-Sky Acceleration, Compliance Edge, Measured Expansion, and Narrow Corridor.For each scenario, the study develops narratives, strategic implications, and response options, and synthesizes cross-scenario “no-regrets” moves and scenario-specific bets. A trigger cockpit of early-warning signals is proposed to help Telkomsel monitor which scenario is unfolding and adjust its strategy dynamically.

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Keywords:

Scenario Planning, Starlink, LEO Satellite, Telkomsel, Fixed–Mobile Convergence, Regulatory Parity, Indonesia, Telecommunications.