Citation:

Muktar Redy Susila, Fastha Aulia Pradhani. "The Role of Exchange Rate as a Moderator of the Influence of Macroeconomic Variables on the IDX Composite" International Research Journal of Economics and Management Studies, Vol. 4, No. 5, pp. 50-58, 2025.

Abstract:

This study aims to analyze the effect of macroeconomic variables on the IDX Composite with the exchange rate as a moderating variable. The macroeconomic variables used are economic growth, interest rate, and inflation. In this study, economic growth, interest rate, and inflation are independent; the exchange rate is a moderating variable, and the IDX Composite is a dependent variable. The sample used in this study is the IDX Composite on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the 1st quarter of 2011 to the 3rd quarter of 2023. This study proves that economic growth and interest rates affect the IDX Composite. The impact of economic growth on the IDX Composite is negative, in contrast to the results of previous studies, which stated a positive effect. Interest rates hurt the IDX Composite, which is in accordance with the results of previous studies. The results of the moderation test showed that the exchange rate could moderate the effect of economic growth on the IDX Composite. The exchange rate strengthens the impact of economic growth on the IDX Composite. On the other hand, the exchange rate could not moderate the effect of interest rates and inflation on the IDX Composite.

References:

[1] A. Bodie, Z., Kane , A., and Marcus, Essentials of Investment: Global Edition. United States of America: McGraw Hill, 2013.
[2] T. Alfatar and D. Soebagiyo, “Analisis Pengaruh Variabel Makroekonomi terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Selama Periode 2001-2022,” Primanomics J. Ekon. Bisnis, vol. 21, no. 2, pp. 149–160, 2023.
[3] K. N. Candrasmurti, “Pengaruh transaksi non tunai dan suku bunga BI rate terhadap jumlah uang yang beredar dengan inflasi dan nilai tukar sebagai variabel moderasi pada tahun 2017-2021,” Universitas Islam Negeri Maulana Malik Ibrahim, 2023.
[4] E. Silalahi and R. Sihombing, “Pengaruh Faktor Makro Ekonomi Terhadap Pergerakan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2017-2020,” J. Ris. Akunt. Keuang., vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 139–152, 2021.
[5] A. B. Wijaya and M. N. Nuryasman, “Pengaruh Variabel Makroekonomi dan Rasio Keuangan terhadap Harga Saham,” J. Manajerial Dan Kewirausahaan, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 12–21, 2022.
[6] N. Sukri and N. Abundanti, “Pengaruh net foreign fund, harga emas, suku bunga terhadap IHSG di BEI pada masa pandemi COVID-19,” E-Jurnal Ekon. dan Bisnis Univ. Udayana, vol. 12, no. 02, pp. 214–221, 2023.
[7] D. Apriliani, “Analisis Pengaruh Variabel Makroekonomi Terhadap Inflasi Di Indonesia,” Ekopem J. Ekon. Pembang., vol. 4, no. 4, pp. 106–119, 2022.
[8] W. I. Sari, “Analisis pengaruh inflasi, suku bunga SBI, nilai tukar terhadap return LQ 45 dan dampaknya terhadap indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI),” J. SEKURITAS (Saham, Ekon. Keuang. Dan Investasi), vol. 3, no. 1, p. 65, 2019.
[9] M. Adhista, “Analisis Ekspor, Impor, dan Jumlah Uang Beredar (M2) Terhadap Nilai Tukar Rupiah,” GROWTH J. Ilm. Ekon. Pembang., vol. 1, no. 2, pp. 73–92, 2022.
[10] M. D. Prasada and I. R. D. Pangestuti, “Analisis pengaruh harga minyak mentah dunia, harga batubara, harga emas, inflasi, dan nilai tukar terhadap IHSG,” Diponegoro J. Manag., vol. 11, no. 6, pp. 45–55, 2022.
[11] K. Wahyudi, M. E. Baining, and K. Khairiyani, “Pengaruh Inflasi, BI-7 Day Reverse Repo Rate (BI7DRR), Dan Kurs Terhadap Nilai Aktiva Bersih (NAB) Reksadana Saham Syariah Dengan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Sebagai Variable Moderasi,” J. Ris. Manaj., vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 139–157, 2023.
[12] A. K. Rivanda, I. A. I. Arif, and R. Ramadhan, “Pengaruh BI Rate dan Inflasi terhadap IHSG dengan Nilai Tukar Sebagai Variabel Moderating,” J. Ilm. MEA (Manajemen, Ekon. Akuntansi), vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 1828–1841, 2022.
[13] O. M. Titus, A. Wagala, and D. K. Muriithi, “Foreign Exchange Rate Volatility and Its Effect on International Trade in Kenya,” Eur. J. Humanit. Soc. Sci., vol. 2, no. 4, pp. 47–56, 2022.
[14] R. Wulan, N. Nurpadilah, and R. Pebrian, “Pengaruh Inflasi, Harga Minyak Dunia, dan Suku Bunga (BI Rate) Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG),” J. Pijar, vol. 1, no. 2, pp. 130–143, 2023.
[15] Y. Effendy, A. Andriawan, M. Rawati, R. Hawari, and A.-A. Al-Amin, “Analisis Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Islam Di Sumatera Barat,” J. Ilm. Ekon. Manaj. Dan Syariah, vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 121–128, 2023.
[16] T. Setiani and R. S. Nurhasanah, “Pengaruh Tingkat Suku Bunga Bank Indonesia Terhadap Harga Saham Pada Perusahaan Multifinance yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2017-2021,” J. Akunt., vol. 17, no. 01, pp. 51–59, 2023.
[17] I. Etikan, S. A. Musa, and R. S. Alkassim, “Comparison of convenience sampling and purposive sampling,” Am. J. Theor. Appl. Stat., vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 1–4, 2016.
[18] A. Triyawan and A. N. Afifah, “Pengaruh Inflasi, Nilai Tukar, Ekspor dan Impor terhadap GDP di Negara Belgia,” J. Ilm. Univ. Batanghari Jambi, vol. 23, no. 1, pp. 19–23, 2023.
[19] R. Ernayani, “Pengaruh Kurs Dolar, Indeks Dow Jones Dan Tingkat Suku Bunga SBI Terhadap IHSG (Periode Januari 2005–Januari 2015),” JST (Jurnal Sains Ter., vol. 1, no. 2, pp. 45–55, 2015.
[20] A. Widodo and T. S. Fadillah, “Pengaruh Inflasi, BI Rate dan Kurs terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (Ihsg) Periode Tahun 2011–2021,” J. Ilm. Swara Manaj., vol. 2, no. 4, pp. 415–425, 2022.

Keywords:

IDX Composite, Exchange Rate, Macroeconomics.