Citation:

Titin Hotmaria Siringoringo, Syamsurijal Tan, Erni Achmad, Zamzami, Candra Mustika, Rosmeli. "Analysis Of Determinants and Inflation Projections In Jambi Province" International Research Journal of Economics and Management Studies, Vol. 4, No. 5, pp. 358-365, 2025.

Abstract:

This study aims to analyze the factors that influence inflation in Jambi Province and inflation projections in Jambi Province in 2025-2029. This study was conducted in Jambi Province using secondary data sourced from Bank Indonesia (BI), the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the Jambi Provincial Government, and the Ministry of Finance. In this study, the analysis tools used are error correction model (ECM) and exponential to analyze and forecast inflation in Jambi Province. The study's results indicate that, in the short term, the exchange rate variable has a significant impact on inflation in Jambi Province, whereas the variables of export value, unemployment, government spending, and household consumption do not have a significant effect on inflation in Jambi Province. In the long term, the variables of exports, unemployment, household consumption, and exchange rates have a significant impact on inflation in Jambi Province, whereas government spending has no significant effect on inflation. Simultaneously, independent variables in both the long and short term have a significant effect on inflation in Jambi Province. Meanwhile, based on the exponential forecasting indicator table, the Holt-Winters Additive model shows the best performance with the lowest MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) value of 3,767,613. The results of the inflation forecast indicate that the future inflation trend exhibits volatility. Overall, this forecast period is marked by instability and quite large changes in the projected inflation rate.

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Keywords:

Inflation, Exchange Rate, Export Value, Unemployment, Government Spending.