Citation:

Fadhilah Abdul Manan Usman, Ahmad Yuniarto, Yudo Anggoro. "Indonesia Dairy Industry in 2050: Strategy Testing for Net Zero Roadmap Using Inductive Scenario Planning Approach (Case Study of PIT)" International Research Journal of Economics and Management Studies, Vol. 4, No. 6, pp. 129-142, 2025.

Abstract:

Nestlé's Net Zero Roadmap by 2050 has been prepared since 2020 to address the climate change challenges and ensure business continuity. Nestlé is one of the big multinational companies in Indonesia. It has been growing for over 50 years, with a diverse product portfolio that includes various categories, such as dairy, beverage, food, and coffee products. Local brands are tailored to the preferences and lifestyles of Indonesians. The challenges of the future are unpredictable in the emerging world. Given the uncertainties PT Nestlé Indonesia (PIT) faces, testing its strategy is crucial to assess the impact and identify mitigation strategies through recommendations for strategy adjustments as a result of this research. The methodology used is scenario planning using OSPA with an inductive method. The primary data analysis from questionnaires, interviews, FGD, and secondary data from a literature review of journals, papers, and online resources resulted in 20 driving forces. The approach of reframing and the reperception cycle is used during the analysis to provide richer insights and out-of-the-box opportunities. PESTEL analysis was employed during the exploration phase, and subsequent iteration and thematic analysis of 435 factors identified 20 key driving forces, which were used to develop plausible scenarios for Indonesia's dairy industry by 2050. Three scenarios are created: "Lonely Island, The Risky Wave of Indonesia's Dairy", Deserted Island, The Beginning of Indonesia's Endgame", and "Paradise Island, The Government's Movements". From the scenarios, further analysis for consequences, opportunities, and early warning signals is needed to test the PIT strategy and provide strategy adjustment recommendations in facing uncertain situations.

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Keywords:

Climate change, Dairy industry, Early warning signals, Indonesia, Net zero roadmap, Sustainability, Strategy, Uncertainty.