: 10.56472/25835238/IRJEMS-V5I1P111
Billy Jayadi. "Indonesia’s Solar Generation Industry in 2045: Applying Deductive Scenario Planning for Testing Business Idea Study Case of an Indonesia – UAE Joint Venture Solar Developer Company" International Research Journal of Economics and Management Studies, Vol. 5, No. 1, pp. 92-104, 2026. Crossref. http://doi.org/10.56472/25835238/IRJEMS-V5I1P111
Amid uncertainty in the direction and pace of Indonesia’s energy transition, the C&I solar development landscape is being reshaped by interacting social, technological, economic, environmental, and political drivers. This study tests the long-horizon robustness of Dune Energy’s business idea by integrating Business Idea Analysis with the Oxford Scenario Planning Approach (OSPA). Following van der Heijden’s scenario tradition, the business idea is made explicit as a “success formula” linking customer value, offering/entrepreneurial invention, distinctive resources and competencies, and a reinforcing surplus loop, then “wind-tunneled” against four internally consistent futures—Avatar, Elysium, Wolf of Wall Street, and Mad Max: Fury Road (van der Heijden, 2001, 2005). Findings indicate material scenario contingency: several elements (e.g., comprehensive solution offering, international shareholder affiliation, and PLN-related partnerships/resources) weaken in cost-driven futures, motivating “low-regret” improvements (Wiest et al., 2025). Recommended priorities include low-cost decentralized PV across C&I rooftops, small–medium utility, and microgrids; stronger creative financing and risk-sharing; enhanced REC monetization; improved digital O&M/monitoring to protect yield and savings; and new capabilities in life-cycle assessment, carbon accounting, and end-of-life management, complemented by scenario-contingent options such as distressed-asset acquisition, industrial process electrification, and grid services/flexibility offerings.
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Oxford Scenario Planning Approach (OSPA), Strategic reframing, Business idea analysis, Indonesia, Solar PV, Commercial & Industrial (C&I), Rooftop, Third Party Ownership (TPO), Energy transition, Scenario planning, Critical uncertainties, Competitive advantage, Distinctive capabilities.