: 10.56472/25835238/IRJEMS-V5I6P107
Nuray Mensimli, Nuray Rzayeva, Elnare Melikzade. "Income Trends and Econometrical Analysis of Azerbaijan's Transport Sectors" International Research Journal of Economics and Management Studies, Vol. 5, No. 6, pp. 77-88, 2026. Crossref. http://doi.org/10.56472/25835238/IRJEMS-V5I6P107
This study provides a comprehensive econometric analysis of income from the transportation of goods in Azerbaijan's railway sector during the period 2000–2024. While previous research primarily focused on descriptive statistical trends, this paper employs advanced econometric techniques to quantify the impact of key variables, including freight turnover, passenger traffic, and infrastructure investment. The study also highlights the impact of major international transport corridors, including the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (Middle Corridor), the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars Railway, the North–South Corridor, and TRACECA. The results offer a precise empirical framework for understanding revenue dynamics, providing policymakers with data-driven insights to enhance the economic efficiency of Azerbaijan's railway sector within the context of international transit corridors. This research conducts a comprehensive econometric evaluation of income generated from cargo transportation in Azerbaijan's air transport sector, covering the period from 2000 to 2024. Following the statistical framework proposed by Mensimli, Malikzade, and Rzayeva (2026), this paper analyzes the structural dynamics of aviation revenues. The abstract outlines the primary objectives, including identifying long-term trends and assessing the sector's financial stability. Using descriptive statistics, the study explores how air freight has become a major economic contributor. The analysis considers various macroeconomic factors that influence the volatility of cargo income. According to Mensimli et al. (2026), transport sectors must be evaluated through rigorous statistical lenses to understand their true impact on national wealth. This study specifically focuses on the air transport subsector to fill a gap in the existing logistics literature. Key measures such as the mean, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation are used to describe the data. The abstract emphasizes the importance of the "Middle Corridor" in boosting air cargo volumes and subsequent revenues. It also highlights the shift from domestic-focused operations to international transit services. The methodology section, referenced here, explains the use of secondary data from official state sources. Results indicate that air transport revenue is highly sensitive to global trade cycles and fuel price indices. The abstract further notes that infrastructure modernization, such as the expansion of cargo terminals, has played a decisive role. Strategic management of these assets is shown to correlate with higher income density per ton-kilometer. The study concludes that while air transport accounts for a smaller volume than sea or rail, its value-to-weight ratio remains superior. This abstract serves as a foundational summary for policymakers and logistics experts alike. Finally, it suggests that future growth is dependent on the continued integration of digital cargo management systems. This study investigates the relationship between total transportation income (TOTAL) and income from sea transportation (SEA) using econometric methods. Time-series data covering the period 2000–2024 were analyzed using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression. The findings indicate that the model has a high explanatory power (R² = 0.894605), showing a strong positive relationship between the variables. Statistical tests such as the F-test and t-test confirm the significance of the model and its parameters. However, the Durbin-Watson statistic indicates the possibility of positive autocorrelation, while the Dickey-Fuller test reveals that the time series is nonstationary. Overall, the research demonstrates the important role of sea transportation in the total income of the transportation sector.
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Azerbaijan, Transport, Income, Railway, Sea, Air, Econometric Analysis, Regression Model, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Time-Series Analysis, Durbin-Watson Test, Dickey-Fuller Test, Heteroskedasticity.