Citation:

Oscar Kuikeu. "Impact of a Major Event on Export Dynamics in CEMAC: Application of Panel Cointegration Test with Break" International Research Journal of Economics and Management Studies, Vol. 5, No. 7, pp. 47-53, 2026. Crossref. http://doi.org/10.56472/25835238/IRJEMS-V5I7P105

Abstract:

The recent contribution on international trade reveals the difficulty in identifying the long-run relationship (the Old Export channel) in the model underlying the export dynamics. In fact, the classical inference on parameter estimates for the Old Export channel shows that the parameter estimates sometimes have the wrong sign while still significant. Then this paper aims to revisit the issue of cointegration in identifying the Old Export channel, as this is a long-run relationship. Then, to overcome the evidence of cointegration in identifying the Old Export channel in the model underlying export dynamics, we use a second-generation cointegration test that extends cointegration tests to dependent panels with structural breaks. The main advantage of this one is that it takes into account the effect of a major event on export dynamics. According to the obtained results, the Asian crisis should have affected the export dynamics of CEMAC countries, reflecting the relevance of the employed Method in assessing export dynamics in the area.

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Keywords:

CEMAC, Cointegration, Major event, Structural Break.