Overconfidence Heuristic-Driven Bias in Investment DecisionMaking: Mediating Effects of Risk Perception and Moderating Effects of Asymmetry Information


International Research Journal of Economics and Management Studies
© 2023 by IRJEMS
Volume 2  Issue 2
Year of Publication : 2023
Authors : Deograsias Yoseph Yustinianus Ferdinand
irjems doi : 10.56472/25835238/IRJEMS-V2I2P133

Citation:

Deograsias Yoseph Yustinianus Ferdinand. "Overconfidence Heuristic-Driven Bias in Investment DecisionMaking: Mediating Effects of Risk Perception and Moderating Effects of Asymmetry Information" International Research Journal of Economics and Management Studies, Vol. 2, No. 2, pp. 301-309, 2023.

Abstract:

An appealing investment demands an equally appealing investing choice. This essay demonstrates how overconfidence affects individual investors' trading decisions on the Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX). by lowering the influence of information asymmetry and regulating the impact of risk perception.We discovered that the association between heuristic overconfidence and investment decision-making is really mediated by perceived risk. The overconfidence heuristic and investment decision-making are correlated, although the relationship is moderated by information asymmetry. The study's findings suggest that individual investors, particularly those at IDX, cannot make quick investment selections and must rely on overconfidence heuristics and quick decisions.

References:

[1] Addinpujoartanto, N. A., dan Darmawan, S. (2020). Pengaruh Overconfidence, Regret Aversion, Loss Aversion, dan Herding Bias Terhadap Keputusan Investasi di Indonesia. Jurnal Riset Ekonomi dan Bisnis, 13(3), 175-187.
[2] Afriani, D., dan Halmawati. (2019). Pengaruh Cognitive Dissonance Bias, Overconfidence Bias, dan Herding Bias Terhadap Pengambilan Keputusan Investasi. Jurnal Explorasi Akuntansi, 1(4), 1650-1665.
[3] Ahmad, Maqsood, and Shah,S.Z.A. (2020). Overconfidence heuristic-driven bias in investment decision-making and performance: mediating effects of risk perception and moderating effects of financial literacy. Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences,
[4] Baker, H.K. and Nofsinger, J.R. (2002), “Psychological biases of investors”, Financial Services Review, Vol. 11 No. 2, pp. 97-116.
[5] Baker, H.K. and Nofsinger, J.R. (2010a), “Behavioral finance: an overview”, Behavioral Finance: Investors, Corporations, and Markets, pp. 1-21.
[6] Baker, H.K. and Nofsinger, J.R. (2010b), Behavioral Finance Investor, Corporations and Markets, Wiley & Sons, New Jersey.
[7] Baker, H., Kumar, S., Goyal, N. and Gaur, V. (2019), “How financial literacy and demographic variables relate to behavioral biases”, Managerial Finance, Vol. 45 No. 1, pp. 124-146.
[8] Budiarto, A., & Susanti. (2017). Pengaruh Financial Literacy, Overconfidance, Regret Aversion Bias, dan Risk Tolerance terhadap Keputusan Investasi (Studi pada investor PT. Sucorinvest Central Gani Galeri Investasi BEI Universitas Negeri Surabaya). Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen (JIM), 5(2), 1–9.
[9] Barber, B. M., & Odean, T. (2000). Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors. The Journal Of FInance, 773-806.
[10] Barberis, N., & Thaler, R. (2003). A Survey Of Behavioral Finance. National Bureau of Economic Research.
[11] De Bondt, W.F. and Thaler, R. (1985), “Does the stock market overreact?”, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 40 No. 3, pp. 793-805.
[12] De Bondt, W.F. and Thaler, R.H. (1990), “Do security analysts overreact?”, The American Economic Review, pp. 52-57.
[13] DeBondt, W.F.M. and Thaler, R.H. (1995), “Financial decision making in markets and firms: a behavioral perspective”, Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science, Vol. 9 No. 13, pp. 385-410.
[14] Ghozali, I. (2016). Aplikasi Analisis Multivariate dengan Program IBM SPSS 23. Edisi 8. Semarang: Badan Penerbit Universitas Diponegoro.
[15] Healy, Paul. (1985). The Effect of Bonus Schemes on Accounting Decisions, Journal of Accounting and Economics. 7, hal. 85-107
[16] Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrika, 47, 263-291. Econometrica, 47(2), 263–292.
[17] Kafayat, A. (2014), “Interrelationship of biases: effect investment decisions ultimately”, Theoretical and Applied Economics, Vol. 21 No. 6, pp. 85-110
[18] Magnuson, N. (2011). The Role Of Expectation In Value And Glamour Stock Return. Journal of Behavioural Finance.
[19] Myers, S.C. and Majluf, N. (1984). Stock Issues and Investment Policy when Firms Have Information that Investors do not Have, Journal of Financial Economics, 13,pp. 187-221.
[20] Noe, Thomas. H dan Rebello., J. (1996). Asymetric Information, Managerial Opportunism, Financing and Payout Policies, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 15., No. 2(Jun), pp 637-660.
[21] Pompian, M. (2006). Behavioral Finance and Wealth Management. Canada: John Wiley & Sons.
[22] Ritter, J.R. (2003), “Behavioral finance”, Journal of Pacific-Basin Finance, Vol. 11 No. 4, pp. 429-437.
[23] Sewell, M. (2007). Behavioral Finance . Unversity Of Cambridge.
[24] Statman, M., Thorley, S. and Vorkink, K. (2006), “Investor overconfidence and trading volume”, Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 19 No. 4, pp. 1531- 1565.
[25] Statman, M. (2014). Behavioral Finance: Finance With Normal People. Borsa Istanbul Review. 65-73.
[26] Tandelilin, Eduardus. (2017). Pasar Modal: Manajemen Portofolio dan Investasi. Yogyakarta: Kanisius.
[27] Trinugroho, I. a. (2011). Overconfidence and Excessive Trading Behavior: An Experimental Study . International journal of Business and Management, 147-152.
[28] Trinugroho, I., & Roy, S. (2011). Overconfidence and Excessive Trading Behavior: An Experimental Study. International journal of Business and Management, 147-152.
[29] ul Abdin, S.Z., Farooq, O., Sultana, N. and Farooq, M. (2017), “The impact of heuristics on investment decision and performance: exploring multiple mediation mechanisms”, Research in International Business and Finance, Vol. 42, pp. 674-688.
[30] Yaowen, X.U.E., Suqing, S.U.N., ZHANG, P. and Tian, M.E.N.G. (2015), “Impact of cognitive bias on improvised decision-makers’ risk behavior: an analysis based on the mediating effect of expected revenue and risk perception”, Management Science and Engineering, Vol. 9 No. 2, pp. 31-42.
[31] Zahera, S. A., dan Bansal, R. (2018). Do Investors Exhibit Behavioral Biases in Investment Decision Making? A Systematic Review. Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, 10(2), 210-251.

Keywords:

Overconfidence, Investment Decision, Risk Perception, Asymmetry Information.